PRIOR RESEARCH SAMPLES
Long Ideas
Varonis Systems (VRNS) - Hawkshaw Deep Dive Report
March 2025
"Our base and bull case assumptions suggest ARR will grow 18-20% annually (versus 16% consensus). Software firms with similar revenue growth and negative GAAP OPM currently trade at 8-11x sales. Our base and bull cases apply revenue multiples of 7.5-9x (vs. 6.4x currently), which suggests 40-80% upside. Conversely, we see 20% downside, assuming a 4.5x sales multiple and a 5% sales miss. Note: in our base case, 2026 revenue growth accelerates to 26% (vs. 18% for ARR) because revenues and margins are understated due to a temporary accounting-related headwind (ASC 606). This headwind should mostly unwind by the end of 2025, as the SaaS transition nears completion. The Street does not model the unwind of the ASC 606 accounting headwind."
The Sage Group (SGE) - Hawkshaw Deep Dive Report
October 2024
"Although consensus sees HSD revenue growth in the coming years, our research suggests that Sage can sustain 10%+ growth as Intacct becomes an increasingly important driver, SMB adoption of ERP systems continues, and AI increases spend per-customer. Our base and bull case assumptions imply EPS compounding high teens to low 20%, and applying P/Es of 25-30x (vs. 27x today) suggests 30-60% upside (vs. 10% downside in our bear case, applying 20x)."
Planet Fitness (PLNT) - Hawkshaw Deep Dive Report
December 2024
"Our base and bull case scenarios have PLNT’s SSS accelerating to 9-13% (from 6%) and margins returning to 34%+ (from 25%), which drives 2026 EPS 30-50% above consensus. Prior to Covid, PLNT enjoyed a premium PE – averaging 42x in 2019 – stemming from its high ROICs (25-30%) and significant growth potential (note: the target for U.S. clubs was recently raised to 5k from 4k). More recently, given the disappointing unit growth, PLNT’s PE has compressed to 25-30x. In our base and bull cases, applying PEs of 25-30x, suggests 50-110% 12-18 month upside (vs. 15% downside)."
Short Ideas
Chewy (CHWY) - Hawkshaw Deep Dive Report
June 2025
"Although bulls argue that CHWY will sustain improving growth trends and achieve strong margin expansion, particularly due to strategic initiatives such as Ads, pharmacy, and owned vet clinics, our deep dive suggests that results in these areas will disappoint, and CHWY’s core retail business is facing intensifying competitive and cyclical headwinds. In our base and bear cases, 2026 Adj. EPS falls 10-20% short of Street estimates (20-30% shortfall in 2027). Applying P/E multiples of 18-24x implies 30-55% ~12-month downside (versus 15% upside in our bull case, assuming 30x). Note: CHWY currently trades at 39x Adj. EPS but traded at ~20-25x in early 2024, when consensus expected muted margin expansion and MSD-HSD revenue growth (vs. LSD-MSD in our base and bear cases)."
Harley Davidson (HOG) - Hawkshaw Deep Dive Report
December 2024
"Harley-Davidson is a secular decliner that is valued by the Street on P/E and currently trades at 7.5x consensus F25E EPS (historical range is 6x-10x from 2022-24). Our research suggests 2026 revenue and EPS will fall short of consensus estimates by 18-24% and 40-60%, respectively, as the company is likely to face 6-10% per year revenue declines through 2026, followed by 4-6% annual declines thereafter. Applying P/Es of 7.0-7.5x our bear and base case assumptions suggests 30-55% downside vs. 25% bull case upside assuming stable revenues and an 8.5x P/E."
On Holding (ONON) - Hawkshaw Deep Dive Report
December 2024
"Although bulls believe ONON can transform into a sportswear business diversified across verticals and categories and continue to achieve industry-leading growth (23% in 2026), our work suggests that the company is likely to fall short of expectations. Our bear and base case assumptions imply 2026 revenue growth of mid-to-high teens and EPS growth of mid-teens to low 20%. Applying P/Es of 30-35x (in line with peers) suggests 25-45% downside (vs. 20% upside in our bull case, assuming 45x)."